Fig. 3

Theory of Change. In Arctic and Oro-Arctic regions, biota (defined by morphological taxonomy—‘population’) has been exposed to the progression of time, over which time unspecified (possibly currently unknown) proximal controls varied in importance and magnitude. Temporal variability within the proximal controls (both biotic—such as inter-specific competition—and abiotic—such as soil physical characteristics), which is driven ultimately by other large-scale environmental factors (e.g., sea ice, teleconnections) affects the performance of biota year-to-year. Biota deposit remains and other indicators of past existence; the centennial-scale variability in Arctic biota (population) are therefore now recorded within measures of biodiversity (outcomes) of the fossils and remains of the population